Best Way To Win At Blackjack
- Blackjack Tips To Win
- Winning Blackjack Strategy
- How To Win In Blackjack
- Best Way To Win At Blackjack In Vegas
Blackjack is one of the least volatile casino games because you have a 46.36% chance of winning any hand (not counting ties). Add in that you can double down and split hands in favorable situations, and you’re dealing with a near 50/50 proposition.
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Nevertheless, blackjack can still be a streaky game. It’s not uncommon to win or lose 3-4 hands in a row.
Some players try to capitalize on winning streaks by increasing their bets, but they often use a randomized approach that involves betting whatever they feel like in the moment.
I’m going to discuss some different ways that you can take advantage of winning streaks through systematic approaches. I’ll also cover how you can turn losing streaks into profits.
But let’s first dive into what your chances are of experiencing both winning and losing streaks in blackjack.
Probabilities of Blackjack Winning and Losing Streaks
Most blackjack streaks last for 2 to 3 hands. This makes winning and losing runs that last for 4 or more hands an unlikely occurrence.
But, as the statistics show, you can never rule out anything in blackjack. The chances of a 9 hand winning streak are 0.1%, meaning this can happen 1 out of every 1,000 times in a nine hand stretch.
Here’s a look at the odds of both winning and losing streaks:
| Length of Streak | Chances of Winning Streak | Chances of Losing Streak |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 22.5% | 27.7% |
| 3 | 10.6% | 14.6% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| 6 | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| 7 | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.3% |
The stats support why blackjack streaks often occur within 2 or 3 hands. Any winning or losing run after this has less than a 10% chance of happening.
Can You Really Win More Money Based on Blackjack Streaks?
Before we get started on the methods that you can use to take advantage of blackjack streaks, I want to discuss if it’s feasible to increase profits during winning runs.
Before blackjack strategy became more prevalent thanks to the internet, many players simply thought that blind luck governed winning and losing streaks.
But streaks aren’t the result of some mysterious force working for or against you. Instead, this is merely statistics at work.
Mathematicians will tell you that a systematic approach during streaks won’t help you win any more money than if you keep flat betting. But there are certain factors that can cause a winning or losing streak.
One example includes an imperfect shuffle, which leaves clumps of high and low cards. And more high cards (a.k.a. aces through jacks) improves your chances of getting a natural blackjack.
Blackjack Tips To Win
The only problem is that it’s nearly impossible to predict when the deck hasn’t been shuffled thoroughly enough.
Whether or not you can take advantage of blackjack streaks with precision is debatable. But what you can count on is building on your winnings during a hot streak.
Likewise, with the right strategy, you can actually earn profits after a losing streak. And this is exactly what I’m going to cover in the upcoming sections.
Taking Advantage of Blackjack Winning Streaks
A great way to capitalize on blackjack winning streaks is by using a positive progression system. Positive progression strategies involve increasing your bets during hot streaks so that you can win even more money.
The best thing about these systems is that they don’t put your bankroll in danger. Instead, a positive progression system only calls on you to increase bets when you’re already winning.
Of course, the downside is that you can also blow your earnings because you’re betting more, but many blackjack players are willing to take this risk if it means turning marginal winnings into a huge profit.
You and I will cover some of these positive progression systems below. I’ll also discuss how you can use winning streaks to camouflage your card counting efforts.
Paroli System
The Paroli system is one of the easiest positive progression strategies to use. You begin by determining a fixed betting unit.
Ideally, this amount will be worth 2% to 5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is worth $500, you can use a $10 betting unit.
The Paroli works by doubling your betting unit after every win. You then stop after three wins and return to the original stake.
Winning Blackjack Strategy
Some players like going to 4-5 wins before returning to the original bet, but this is risky because we already covered that your chances of winning four straight hands are less than 10%.
Here’s an example on using the Paroli for a three win sequence:
- You bet $10 and win.
- You bet $20 and win.
- You bet $40 and win.
- You return to the original $10 bet.
The nice thing about the Paroli system is that you win more during hot streaks without being too risky. The trouble, though, is that you only have a 10.6% chance of winning a three hand sequence.
1 3 2 6 System
The 1 3 2 6 strategy isn’t as popular as the Paroli, but it’s still a simple positive progression strategy that can bring you big winnings.
This system begins with choosing a fixed betting unit. And just like with the Paroli, 2% to 5% of your bankroll is a good unit size.
Each number in the 1 3 2 6 system represents how many betting units you risk in the sequence. In other words, you bet one unit, followed by three units, two units, and six units.
You start a fresh sequence every time you lose a bet or win four straight wagers. Here’s an example of using this strategy:
- Your betting unit is $10.
- You bet $10 and win.
- You bet $30 and win.
- You bet $20 and win.
- You bet $60 and win.
- Return to a $10 bet.
The primary advantage of the 1 3 2 6 strategy is that you can book profits even if you don’t complete the sequence. The downside is that you’ll rarely win four blackjack hands in a row and reach the end of the betting string.
Reverse Labouchere
The reverse Labouchere system is one of the most complicated gambling strategies. But you should still be able to pick up this system within a few minutes.
The reverse Labouchere starts with creating a sequence of numbers. The numbers should add up to your desired profit for the betting string.
You then add the first and last number in the sequence to determine your next bet.
If you win the wager, you add the combined amount to the end of your sequence. After a loss, you cross off both numbers and continue to the next wager.
You start over with a new sequence whenever completing the number string. Here’s an example of using the reverse Labouchere:
- Your sequence is: 1 2 4 5 4 = $16 profit.
- Your first bet is $5 (1 + 4).
- You win, and your new string becomes: 1 2 4 5 4 5.
- Your next bet is $6 (1+ 5).
- You lose, and your new sequence becomes: 2 4 5 4.
The drawback to this strategy is that it normally takes a while to complete your betting sequence. But the upside is that you can win solid profits after completing the number string.
One Half Increase
The one half increase system is aptly named, because you increase your betting unit by one half after a two-hand winning streak. You continue this half unit increase for every subsequent win.
You can see an example below:- Your unit size is $20.
- You win a $20 bet.
- You win a $20 bet.
- Your next wager becomes $30.
- You win the $30 bet.
- Your next wager becomes $40.
- You lose the $40 bet.
- Return to the original $20 wager.
The one half increase is my favorite positive progression system, because it allows you to capitalize on win streaks without risking the majority of your profits.
Card Counting Cover
One of the biggest challenges in card counting is making sure that the casino doesn’t know you’re a counter. Trying to take advantage of winning streaks is a good way to accomplish this goal.
This is especially the case when it’s early in a shoe hands and there isn’t much deck penetration. If the dealer or pit boss notices you increasing bets at this point, they’ll think that you’re just a regular player who’s looking for more wins during a hot streak.
Let’s contrast this to a card counter who flat bets while winning 3-4 hands in a row. This becomes suspicious when you suddenly increase your bet by wide margins later in the shoe.
A good time to boost your bets during a winning streak is when the true count is at 0 or +1.
These are points when a normal card counter flat bets. But again, increasing your wagers at this point makes it look like you’re simply a progressive better.
Of course, you should avoid spreading your bets too high in these cases, because you don’t have a mathematical advantage. But wagering an extra unit can help you with camouflaging when you’re taking heat from the pit boss.
Taking Advantage of Blackjack Losing Streaks
Taking advantage of a losing streak sounds like an oxymoron. After all, how is it possible to gain any advantage from losing in blackjack?
But you actually can swing things in your favor with the right negative progression systems. A negative progression strategy calls on you to bet more when you’re losing.
This is extremely risky because you can pile up more losses during a cold streak. However, you can also win back all of your losses and book a profit when things go your way.
Below I’ll cover a few different negative progression systems along with how these strategies can camouflage card counting.
Martingale
The Martingale is easy to use because the only requirement involves doubling bets after every loss.
You start off by wagering the table minimum. You double this amount every time you lose, and return to the table minimum after any win.
Here’s an example of the Martingale:- You bet $5 and lose (bankroll at -5).
- You bet $10 and lose (bankroll at -15).
- You bet $20 and lose (bankroll at -35).
- You bet $40 and lose (bankroll at -75).
- You bet $80 and lose (bankroll at -155).
- You bet $160 and lose (bankroll at -315).
- You bet $320 and win (bankroll at +5).
The upside is that this system actually gives you an advantage in theory. As long as you always win to end a losing streak, you’ll earn back your losses plus a small profit.
The major downside is that you can lose your entire bankroll during long losing runs. Another problem is that you’ll eventually hit the table betting limit if you lose enough hands.
This is why I suggest finding tables with a low minimum bet and generous max wager if you’re going to use the Martingale.
Oscar’s Grind
Oscar’s Grind is a fairly complicated strategy that involves increasing your bets following a losing streak.
You start out by choosing a unit size, such as $10 or $20. You then wager one unit until you run into a losing streak.
As soon as your losing streak ends, you increase your bet size by one unit. This continues until you’ve earned a one-unit profit.
At this point, you return to betting a single unit until the next losing streak occurs. Here’s an example of how Oscar’s Grind works:
- You bet 1 unit ($10) and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -1)
- You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2)
- You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -3)
- You bet 1 unit and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -4)
- You bet 1 unit and win – Next bet is 2 units (bankroll at -3)
- You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -5)
- You bet 2 units and lose – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -7)
- You bet 2 units and win – Next bet is 3 units (bankroll at -5)
- You bet 3 units and win – Bet stays the same (bankroll at -2).
- You bet 3 units and win – Next bet is 1 unit (bankroll at +1).
My favorite thing about Oscar’s Grind is that you don’t have to risk much money after a losing streak. This allows you to win back your money in a more conservative manner.
The drawback is that some blackjack players won’t be happy with how slowly this system works.
Labouchere
Earlier I covered how the reverse Labouchere works, and the regular Labouchere has the same structure, only in a negative progression format.
This strategy begins by creating a number string that represents your bet amounts. The sequence can be however long you’d like, but I suggest keeping it to 5 to 8 numbers.
The next step is to make your first bet by combining the first and last numbers.
You cross both numbers off after a win and continue to the next wager. Following a loss, you add the combined bet to the end of the sequence.
Here’s an example of how the Labouchere works:- Your number sequence is: 1 4 6 3 4 7.
- Your first bet is $8.
- You lose, and your new string becomes: 1 4 6 3 4 7 8.
- Your next bet is $9.
- You win, and your new string becomes: 4 6 3 4 7.
The good thing about this system is that it’s less risky than the Martingale, but you still carry a fair amount of risk because it takes a while to complete each number string.
Card Counting Cover
Negative progression betting systems are another way that you can hide your card counting efforts.
When the true count is at 0 or +1, you increase your units to make it seem like you’re temporarily using a negative progression strategy.
And when the count is in your favor later in the shoe, it will merely appear that you’re using a positive progression system.
Negative progression strategies don’t work as well in camouflaging efforts. The reason why is because pit bosses may think it’s strange that you’re alternating between negative and positive systems.
But this is still better than increasing your bets later in the shoe during a very positive count, then flat betting at every other point.
Return to Minimum Bet
Another way to handle blackjack losing streaks involves returning to the table minimum.
This doesn’t help you to take advantage of losing runs like the systems covered above. But if you’ve been wagering above the table minimum, decreasing your bet will limit losses during a downswing.
The important thing to realize here is that no gambling system can overcome the blackjack house edge. This is why it’s so risky to increase wagers when you’re losing.
By making the minimum bet, you can ride out losing streaks and eventually start betting big again when you’re winning.
Conclusion
Betting more or less during streaks isn’t necessarily a foolproof way to beat blackjack, but betting strategies can at least help you take full advantage of winning and losing streaks.
This is especially the case during winning runs, where a positive progressive system really increases your profits. My favorite positive progression strategy is the one-half increase, but the Paroli, 1 3 2 6, and reverse Labouchere are also widely used.
Negative progression systems help you chase losses and eventually end up with a small profit, but you should be careful with these strategies because they add more risk to a losing situation.
Keep in mind that no betting system overcomes the blackjack house advantage. However, you can at least manipulate your short-term winnings and take advantage of winning/losing streaks with these strategies.
Card counting is one of the most famous advantage-play methods in gambling. In fact, a number of Hollywood movies include card counting scenes or are based entirely on this technique.
Skilled counters can gain anywhere from a 0.5% to 1.5% edge over the house, which leads to good profits over time.
Given card counting’s fame, the mainstream population and even many blackjack players themselves think that this is the only way to gain an edge.
But the truth is that you don’t have to count cards to beat blackjack. Instead, you can use one of several other advantage-play techniques to win.
I’m going to discuss how hole carding, shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, and edge sorting can help you beat the game. I’ll also discuss if any of these advantage-play methods are better than card counting.
Hole Carding
Blackjack dealers at North American casinos deal themselves one face-up and one face-down card. The face-down card is referred to as the hole card because it’s not visible to players.
The dealer is the only person at the table who sees the hole card, because they check for a natural blackjack before players act.
Given that you don’t see the hole card, you’re basing blackjack decisions on incomplete information.
Basic strategy helps you narrow the gap between the house and yourself. But you’re still at a slight disadvantage when using perfect basic strategy.
Enter hole carding: an advantage-play technique that involves spotting the dealer’s hole card. If you see their hole card, you can gain up to a 13% advantage.
Any dealer who consistently offers players a chance to see this is called a “flasher.” These dealers, through one mistake or another, allow players to gain a big advantage by flashing their hole card.
The best way to spot these dealer flaws is by sitting in the right seat and paying close attention to every hand.
Most players don’t pay attention to when the dealer peeks for blackjack or deals themselves the hole card. But by doing so, this gives you a tremendous advantage at a flasher’s table.
Spotting the dealer’s face-down card when they peek for a blackjack is called “first-basing” or “third-basing.” Spotting the hole card when it’s slid under the up-card is called “front loading.”
Many hole-carders sit at first base, which is the first seat to the dealer’s left. This gives you the best chance at seeing a right-handed dealer’s hole card.
The other popular hole-carding seat is third base, which is to the dealer’s immediate right. This is the best spot to see a left-handed dealer’s face-down card.
It also helps if you can gain a vantage point closer to the table felt. The more level your eyes are with the table, the better chance you have of seeing the hole card.
Shorter players have an advantage in this regard because they’re naturally closer to the table felt. Taller players often lean back to improve their vantage point.
Of course, the key is to do so in a subtle manner. Being obvious about leaning back or slouching draws attention to your hole-carding efforts.
How To Win In Blackjack
Another thing that you need to be careful of is over-using your advantage. Sometimes you should ignore the info you gain when using basic strategy because some plays look too suspicious.
Here’s an example.
- Your first two cards total a hard 8
- The dealer’s up-card is a 10
- You see that the dealer’s hole card is 2
- The optimal play is to double down against the dealer’s 12
- But no regular player is going to make this decision because they’re not supposed to have this info
The last thing that you want to do is continue taking advantage of plays like this, especially when your dealer is a consistent flasher.
If the casino finds out that a dealer is consistently flashing cards and helping a player(s) win, one of two things will happen.
- 1. The dealer will receive better training
- 2. The dealer will be fired if flashing becomes a consistent problem
In either case, the work you put into finding a flasher goes out the window. And this is hardly worth taking advantage of a few suspicious plays that you should let go.
Players need to think long term and realize what kind of profits they can make by continuing to play at the dealer’s table. Avoid decisions that are too far outside the bounds of regular strategy.
It’s hard to find a consistent flasher. Casinos train dealers on how to deal without giving players a chance to see their hole card.
Nevertheless, some dealers either don’t pick up enough skills in training or become lackadaisical over time.
The best place to start when looking for flashers is casino-heavy cities like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and Reno. This enables you to bounce from casino to casino within a single shift.
Odds are that you’re not going to find a flasher within your first few hunts. But once you do find one, note what shift they work and make it a priority to play at their table.
Shuffle Tracking
In the 1960s and ‘70s, Las Vegas casinos began implementing shoe games. The idea was to hinder card counters by forcing them to count through multiple decks in each shoe.
Casinos thought that they solved their card counting problem with shoe blackjack tables. But card counters merely adjusted their strategy, and other techniques such as shuffle tracking were born as well.
Shuffle tracking refers to tracking specific cards, or a sequence of cards, through multiple shuffles. Shuffle trackers monitor where 10s and face cards (a.k.a. high cards) are throughout the coming rounds.
Much like card counting, the goal is to bet more when the shoe is abundant in high cards. When used properly, shuffle tracking is much more effective than counting.
But this technique is also very difficult to use, because you must know an advanced strategy on top of card counting.
The basic idea behind shuffle tracking is that shuffles aren’t random, and you can track certain cards after a shuffle.
You might think, “Can’t dealers just shuffle more to make decks more random and stop shuffle trackers?” But many casinos don’t like their dealers wasting too much time with shuffles, because this slows the game and lowers profits.
Blackjack dealers commonly use a “zero shuffle,” where cards are separated into piles, with the shuffling only being done between the piles (i.e., the dealer grabs two piles and riffles them). This means that the ace of hearts, for example, would have a high chance of only being in one or two sections of the shuffled shoe.
Card counting comes in because you want keep track of the count in different discard sections. I’ll start this explanation by looking at the point values assigned in the Hi-Lo counting method.
- 2 through 6 = +1
- 7 through 9 = 0
- 10 through ace = -1
You can use other card counting systems with shuffle tracking. But the Hi-Lo is a popular counting strategy that’s easy to use.
As you may know, high cards favor the player by improving their chances of getting a natural blackjack payout. This advantage comes from the fact that players get either a 3:2 or 6:5 bonus with a natural.
Meanwhile, low cards reduce the dealer’s chance of busting out while they try to reach a hard 17. Anything that increases the dealer’s odds of winning is bad for players.
The premise is to make higher bets when the shoe is rich in aces and 10-value cards (i.e., positive count) and bet the table minimum when the shoe contains more low cards (i.e., negative count).
The overall positive or negative count is referred to as a “running count.” But Hi-Lo system users convert this into a “true count,” which accounts for the number of unplayed decks in the shoe.
Here’s an example:
- Your running count is +8
- There are 4 decks remaining
- 8/4 = +2 true count
Card counting and shuffle tracking come together when players have a good idea of what card values are left in the shoe based on their count. If they can take this a step further by visually tracking high cards and finding them bunched together, they gain an even greater advantage.
One big benefit of shuffle tracking is that it’s harder to spot than card counting.
Sure, you’re still increasing bets during favorable situations. But your increased bets come in a shorter span once 10-value cards and aces emerge in clumps.
Another advantage is that you can gain up to a 50% advantage with perfect shuffle tracking.
No player will have this edge all of the time. But an expert shuffle tracker may gain between a 10% and 30% long-term edge, depending upon the dealer and shuffling style they’re using.
The downside is that shuffle tracking is extremely difficult to pull off. You not only need to keep a good count, but also follow the deck with your eyes and understand how high cards will disperse after shuffles.
Be prepared to practice for quite some time in order to become an expert shuffle tracker. Even then, you need to be good enough to pull this off with a high degree of certainty.
In other words, some players fool themselves into thinking that they’re gaining an edge, when they’re really not doing anything special.
Another drawback is that not every casino trains their blackjack dealers in a shuffle that can be exploited. Some casinos use a 2-pass shuffle, where they go through two rounds of riffling and restacking.
2-pass shuffles make it harder to track cards during a shuffle. Ideally, you want a one-pass shuffle to cut down on the randomness of the shoe.
One more point worth making is that you can’t shuffle track with a continuous shuffling machine (CSM). That said, look for hand-shuffled shoes with one-pass shuffles.
Ace Sequencing
Ace sequencing is a different type of card tracking, where you try to remember what cards are on top of the ace in the discard pile. You then make larger bets when you see these cards come out in hopes of being dealt an ace.
Like shuffle tracking, ace sequencing is a difficult pursuit. The best ace trackers can remember up to a dozen card sequences in each shoe, thus greatly improving their chances of catching aces.
If you know that you’re likely to be dealt an ace, you can gain up to a 50% advantage on the house. When you’re dealt an ace, you have a 31% chance of getting a 10-value card and completing a natural blackjack.
But becoming a great ace tracker is hard because there’s not many materials on the matter – unlike with card counting. Additionally, it takes a while to learn how to properly execute this concept.
Ace sequencing begins with watching discard segments so that you can guess what clumps might appear intact after a shuffle. You also want to watch where aces go into the discard tray, so that you have a good idea on when an ace will be dealt in a segment.
Finally, you want to remember 2-3 cards that are placed on top of the ace in the discard try. Dubbed “key cards,” these are what you watch for after the deck is shuffled.
You then increase your bet when you see the key cards and can anticipate an ace being dealt.
But keep in mind that ace sequencing is just like shuffle-tracking in that it doesn’t work when your table has a CSM.
Edge Sorting
Edge sorting is an advantage-play technique that was popularized by poker pro Phil Ivey. Along with his partner Cheung Yin Sun, Ivey won over $20 million collectively from Crockfords and the Borgata.
Lawsuits ensued, and the court sided with both casinos on the matter. But this was only after Ivey’s case was heavily scrutinized by casino security.
That said, it’s theoretically possible for blackjack and other card players to win money with edge sorting.
This technique involves spotting flaws on card backs and using this information to predict card values before they’re revealed.
But you can’t just walk into the casino and expect to find a flawed deck to take advantage of. Instead, you need to know about design flaws in specific manufactured decks and determine where these decks are used.
This is how Cheung was able to help Ivey win millions of dollars. She analyzed a purple Gemaco deck for hours and became good at spotting the design flaws.
These flaws often come in the following form.
- One side of certain card backs will feature half-diamonds on the edge
- Other cards may have full diamonds on the edges
- These flaws are easiest to spot when the flawed side is rotated towards you
- The goal is to figure out which values have an irregular diamond pattern on the back
Edge sorting works best when cards are rotated 180 degrees because this makes it easier to see the diamond patterns. This is why Ivey specifically requested that cards be rotated 180 degrees under the guise of superstition.
But Ivey is a high-stakes gambler who can make these kinds of requests. The average player doesn’t have this sway and won’t have a chance with edge sorting.
Unless you’re a high-stakes blackjack player, then you can’t gain an advantage through this technique through special requests. Even when you can make these requests, casinos will be on guard due to the fame associated with Ivey’s case.
Do Any of These Advantage-Play Methods Beat Blackjack?
All of the blackjack advantage-play techniques covered above can give you a greater edge than card counting.
You can gain up to a 50% advantage in the case of both shuffle tracking and ace sequencing. Hole carding can also give you a nice edge worth up to 13%.
I can’t find exact figures on what advantage a player can gain with edge sorting. But based on how well Ivey did, I’m assuming that you can earn over a 20% advantage with it.
Compared to all of these techniques, card counting is a much tougher grind. The average skilled card counter only gains a 1% advantage.
This means that you’ll experience almost as many losing sessions as you do winning ones. Because of this, card counters need large bankrolls worth $30,000 or more to survive variance with any degree of certainty.
But the good thing about counting is that it’s easier to pull off than any of the methods I covered above. Furthermore, you can find more blackjack games that are susceptible to card counting.
Contrast this to hole carding, shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, and edge sorting, where you need much more specific conditions to win.
I’m not saying that you shouldn’t try these advanced strategies. This is especially the case with hole carding, shuffle tracking, and ace sequencing, which work with great success in the right games.
But be aware that you’ll need to put in more work with these techniques to properly use them.
Conclusion
You’ve likely heard stories of card counters getting kicked out of casinos. In fact, the movie 21 dedicates multiple scenes to the casinos’ pursuit of the MIT Blackjack Team.
The same holds true of any other blackjack advantage-play method you use, whether it be hole carding, shuffle tracking, or edge sorting.
Casinos are private establishments that can refuse service to blackjack players. And if they determine that you’ve gained an advantage in any form, they’ll ask you to leave.
This makes it important to blend in and act like a normal player if you do gain an advantage. If your edge is large enough, you might even consider messing up a few plays just to look like an average recreational player.
Above all, make sure that you have an advantage first. Then you can concentrate on a persona to use to avoid casino detection.
But before you embark on a quest to become a pro, I recommend playing some low-stakes blackjack while you figure the game out.
You can use basic strategy while keeping an eye on the dealer’s hole card, flawed decks, or shuffle-tracking opportunities. This is a nice way to transition from being a regular player to getting an edge on casinos.